Original article from theweek.co.uk
Gold recovered modestly on Thursday after hitting its lowest level for a month on renewed rate rise speculation, but analysts expect the downward trend to continue as the price “seeks out a bottom”.
More immediately, Daily FX‘s currency strategist James Stanley says “near-term support has come in just above the $1,100 level”.
Gold had tested this threshold, which is close to multi-year lows reached in August, on Wednesday when it closed at $1,105 an ounce. Yesterday the gold price rose slightly amid wider equities falls, settling at $1,110 an ounce on the New York Comex exchange.
But analysts are not convinced that the market has reached its nadir. Even including the Thursday rise, gold prices had recorded ten falls in 13 sessions, with five consecutive days of decline leading up to the modest recovery. Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants in New Delhi, told Marketwatch that gold is “not out of the woods yet” as the market remains fixated on the questions of when interest rates will finally rise.
BNP Paribas cut its 2015 outlook for gold by $15 to $1,145 an ounce, at the same time It also reaffirmed its view that it will “see a downturn through 2017″. This follows a prediction from ABN Amro that gold could fall as low as $1,000 this year and further next.
Mark O’Byrne, executive director at GoldCore, based in Dublin, said there was current a split in sentiment between physical buyers of gold bullion and the futures market, which is used as a hedge for inflation and a proxy currency and is struggling to gain traction. Bullion buyers, however, are banking on price rises “due to a combination of geopolitical, macroeconomic and monetary risk”.